AbstractSmall barrier estuaries are common in temperate latitudes where catchment runoff is small. The entrance state controls the tidal exchange and hence the salinity regime and flushing. To aid the study and management of these estuaries, predictions of the stability and future evolution of the estuary entrance must be made. This paper demonstrates the application of the attractor method to determine the stability of a wide sample of estuaries on the south-eastern coast of Australia, using only data available in broad-based public data bases. The method uses a simple hydrodynamic-sediment balance model, run for thousands of scenarios and thousands of tide cycles to identify the long-term dynamic equilibria - the attractors. The model predictions are shown to match stability data in the data bases and to provide realistic predictions of the entrance evolution. The results have direct applicability to high-level assessment of coastal assets and to optimal selection of model scenarios for more detailed modelling of any selected estuary.
Cooper, J.A.G. (2001). Geomorphological variability among microtidal estuaries from the wave-dominated South African coast. Geomorphology 40, 99–122.
DPIE (2020) Estuaries of New South Wales NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment. https://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/topics/water/estuaries/estuaries-of-nsw/tabourie-lake Last accessed 6/11/2020.
Hager, W.H., (2005). Du Boys and sediment transport, Journal of Hydraulic Research 43(3), 227-233.
Haines, P.E. (2006) Physical and Chemical Behaviour and Management of Intermittently Closed and Open Lakes and Lagoons (ICOLLs) in NSW, PhD thesis, Griffith University, Qld, Australia.
Hanslow, D.J., Davis, G.A., You, B.Z. and J. Zastawny (2008) Berm height at coastal lagoon entrances in NSW, 10th Annual NSW Coastal Management Conf., Yamba, NSW, Australia. 12pp.
Hinwood, J.B. and E.J.McLean (2014). Entrance changes in the Snowy River estuary in response to environmental flow releases. Australian Journal of Civil Engineering, 12(1), 16-29.
Hinwood, J.B. and E.J.McLean (2015). Predicting the dynamics of intermittently closed/open estuaries using attractors, Coastal Engineering, 99, 64-72.
Hinwood, J.B. and E.J.McLean (2018). Tidal inlets and estuaries: Comparison of Bruun, Escoffier, O’Brien and attractors, Coastal Engineering, 33: 92-105.
OzEstuaries (2010) A module of OzEstuaries (in preparation but currently as a stand-alone module), Geoscience Australia and CSIRO, Commonwealth Government, Canberra., Australia. http://www.ozcoasts.org.au/ last accessed November 2020.
Roper, T., Creese, B., Scanes, P., Stephens, K., Williams, R., Dela-Cruz, J., Coade, G., Coates, B. and Fraser M. (2011). Assessing the condition of estuaries and coastal lake ecosystems in NSW, Monitoring, evaluation and reporting program, Technical report series, Office of Environment and Heritage, Sydney, Australia.
Roy P. S., Williams, R.J., Jones, A.R., Yassini, I., Gibbs, P.J., Coates, B., West” R.J., Scanes, P.R., Hudson, J.P. and S. Nichol (2001). Structure and function of South-east Australian Estuaries, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 53, 351–384
Thuy, T. T. V., P. Nielsen & D. P. Callaghan (2013): Inferring inlet morphodynamics and hydraulic parameters from tidal records: A case study of four closure events of Avoca Lake Australia. Int J Earth Sciences & Eng, Vol 6 No 2, pp 225-231.
Wiegel, R.L. 1965. Oceanographical Engineering, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, p381.