UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME STORM SURGE ESTIMATION BY HIGH WIND SEA SURFACE DRAG COEFFICIENT AND FUTURE TYPHOON CHANGE

Hiroyasu Kawai; Noriaki Hashimoto; Masaru Yamashiro; Tomohiro Yasuda

doi:10.9753/icce.v32.currents.18

No. 32 (2010), Swash, Nearshore Currents, and Long Waves

No. 32 (2010)

UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME STORM SURGE ESTIMATION BY HIGH WIND SEA SURFACE DRAG COEFFICIENT AND FUTURE TYPHOON CHANGE

Swash, Nearshore Currents, and Long Waves

Published 2011-01-29

Hiroyasu Kawai⁺⁻
Noriaki Hashimoto⁺⁻
Masaru Yamashiro⁺⁻
Tomohiro Yasuda⁺⁻

Hiroyasu Kawai

Port and Airport Research Institute

Noriaki Hashimoto

Kyushu University

Masaru Yamashiro

Kyushu University

Tomohiro Yasuda

Kyoto University

Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference

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Keywords

stochastic typhoon model
storm surge
design storm water level
return period
sea surface drag coefficient
climate change

How to Cite

UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME STORM SURGE ESTIMATION BY HIGH WIND SEA SURFACE DRAG COEFFICIENT AND FUTURE TYPHOON CHANGE. (2011). Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(32), currents.18. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.currents.18

Abstract

Japan has been constructing long coastal defense since the storm surge disaster with a loss of 5,000 lives by Typhoon Vera in 1959. The defense is designed for the storm water level including the storm surge of the standard typhoon based on Typhoon Vera. Stochastic typhoon model, simulating various typhoon track and intensity with Monte Carlo method, is one of useful tools to estimate the return period. According to recent research output the return period of the storm surge of the standard typhoon is near 100 years or more at three major bays in Japan. But there is uncer-tainty by some of parameters and models in the stochastic simulation. Sea surface drag coefficient under high wind speed and future change in typhoon intensity and track are critical to extreme values of the storm surges.

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References

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UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME STORM SURGE ESTIMATION BY HIGH WIND SEA SURFACE DRAG COEFFICIENT AND FUTURE TYPHOON CHANGE

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