ICCE 2022

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FUTURE PREDICTION OF WIND VELOCITY AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE COMPLETELY ICE-FREE ARCTIC OCEAN UNDER RCP8.5 SCENARIO. (2023). Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 37, waves.6. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v37.waves.6


The summer sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean has decreased by several million square kilometers over the past decades highly likely due to anthropogenic global warming (Walsh, 2014). In the Arctic Ocean, the decrease in sea ice increases the open water area (and period), which potentially leads to the development of more energetic wave conditions (Wang et al., 2015). In the summertime Arctic Ocean, the maximum wind speed and the maximum significant wave height have been on a long-term upward trend as the sea ice extent has decreased (Waseda et al., 2018). In addition, changes in wind speed will contribute significantly to changes in the wave height in the future Arctic Ocean (Khon et al., 2014). Thus, it is becoming more important to study the sea surface wave heights in the Arctic area under possible future scenarios. The aim of this study is (1) to develop a method to assess wind and wave conditions over the Arctic Ocean and (2) to predict them under global warming considering the RCP 8.5 scenario.


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Copyright (c) 2023 Yudai Aoki, Ryota Nakamura, Martin Mäll