AbstractHurricane Sandy (2012) resulted in historic losses to the beach and dune system in many parts of New Jersey, leaving inland structures susceptible to wave and surge-induced damages. To defend against future threats, the state, in conjunction with the US Army Corps of Engineers, has pursued a statewide system of engineered beaches comprised of a dune paired with a beach nourishment. Currently in the state there is much debate over the degree of protection these projects currently offer, and how this may change in the future due to climate change. Process-based models can be used to try to answer these questions; however, as the number of test cases increase the computational costs may become prohibitive. Here, a data-driven modeling approach is used to assess the variability in the vulnerability of the beach-dune system in New Jersey to a range of storms. Inputs to the model include storm intensity as characterized by the Storm Erosion Index (SEI) (Miller and Livermont 2008) and parameterized pre-storm morphology. The resulting classification tree ensemble has been shown to accurately predict dune volume loss (as a percent) due to historical storms (Lemke and Miller, 2021). Here, the model is applied to further investigate how changes to beach-dune system and sea level rise affect the probability of dune impact.
Janssen, Lemke, and Miller (2019): Application of storm erosion index (SEI) to parameterize spatial storm intensity and impacts from Hurricane Michael, Shore and Beach, vol. 87, 41-50.
Lemke and Miller (2020): Evaluation of storms through the lens of erosion potential along the New Jersey, USA coast, Coastal Engineering, vol. 158, 103699.
Lemke and Miller (2021): Role of storm erosion potential and beach morphology in controlling dune erosion, Marine Science and Engineering, vol. 9 (1428).
Miller and Livermont (2008): A predictive index for wave and storm surge induced erosion, Proceedings of the 31st ICCE, 4143-4153.
Stockton University CRC (2012): Beach dune performance assessment of New Jersey Beach Profile Network (NJBPN) sites at Northern Ocean County, New Jersey, after Hurricane Sandy related to FEMA disaster DR-NJ-4086.
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Copyright (c) 2023 Laura Lemke-Verderame, Jon K. Miller, Matthew Janssen, Audrey Fanning