FORECAST VERIFICATION OF AN ENSEMBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM SURGE SYSTEM
ICCE 2022
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How to Cite

FORECAST VERIFICATION OF AN ENSEMBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM SURGE SYSTEM. (2023). Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 37, management.105. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v37.management.105

Abstract

Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced storm surges can be especially damaging and require emergency preparations. A unique challenge of providing TC storm surge advice to emergency services relates to the sensitivity of storm surge forecasts to uncertainty in the TC forecast. Probabilistic forecast products are a good fit for such advice, as long as forecast skill characteristics are known and understood. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology operates a dynamical ensemble prediction system to provide forecasts of storm surge driven by TCs. This is a step change from the legacy parametric and/or scenario-based techniques previously used at the Bureau. There are a number of benefits to be gained from dynamic storm surge ensemble forecasts over more traditional systems. Most importantly, the surge forecast is very sensitive to errors in the TC location, velocity, intensity, and size. Ensemble storm surge forecasting is required in order to take account of this uncertainty in the TC forecast.
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References

DeMaria, Knaff, Knabb, Lauer, Sampson, and DeMaria, (2009): A New Method for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities, Weather and Forecasting, 24, 1573-1591.

Greenslade, Taylor, Freeman, Sims, Schulz, Colberg, Divakaran, Velic, and Kepert, (2018): A First Generation Dynamical Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Forecast System Part 1: Hydrodynamic model, Bureau Research Report No 31, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

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Copyright (c) 2023 Huy Tran, Andy Taylor, Stefan Zieger, Diana Greenslade