AbstractChronic erosion of sandy coasts is a continuous potential threat for the growing coastal communities worldwide. The prediction of shoreline evolution is therefore key issue for robust decision making worldwide, especially in the context of climate change. Shorelines respond to various complex processes interacting at several temporal and spatial scales, making shoreline reconstructions and predictions challenging and uncertain, especially on long time scales (e.g. decades or century). Despite the increasing progresses in addressing uncertainties related to the physics of Sea Level Rise, very little effort is made towards understanding and reducing the uncertainties related to wave driven coastal response. To fill this gap, we analyse the uncertainties associated with long-term (2 decades) modelling of the cross-shore transport dominated high-energy sandy coast around Truc Vert beach, SW France, which has been surveyed semi-monthly over the last 12 years.
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