IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL FREE PARAMETERS AND SEA LEVEL RISE ON SHORELINE CHANGES: A 20-YEAR HINDCAST AT TRUC VERT BEACH, SW FRANCE
PDF

How to Cite

D’Anna, M., Idier, D., Castelle, B., Cozannet, G. L., Rohmer, J., & Robinet, A. (2020). IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL FREE PARAMETERS AND SEA LEVEL RISE ON SHORELINE CHANGES: A 20-YEAR HINDCAST AT TRUC VERT BEACH, SW FRANCE. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, (36v), management.10. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.management.10

Abstract

Chronic erosion of sandy coasts is a continuous potential threat for the growing coastal communities worldwide. The prediction of shoreline evolution is therefore key issue for robust decision making worldwide, especially in the context of climate change. Shorelines respond to various complex processes interacting at several temporal and spatial scales, making shoreline reconstructions and predictions challenging and uncertain, especially on long time scales (e.g. decades or century). Despite the increasing progresses in addressing uncertainties related to the physics of Sea Level Rise, very little effort is made towards understanding and reducing the uncertainties related to wave driven coastal response. To fill this gap, we analyse the uncertainties associated with long-term (2 decades) modelling of the cross-shore transport dominated high-energy sandy coast around Truc Vert beach, SW France, which has been surveyed semi-monthly over the last 12 years.

Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/_NBJ2v-koMs
https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.management.10
PDF

References

Castelle, Bujan, Ferreira, Dodet (2017): Foredune morphological changes and beach recovery from the extreme 2013/2014 winter at a high-energy sandy coast. Marine Geology, vol. 385, pp. 41-55.

Le Cozannet, Oliveros, Castelle, Garcin, Idier, Pedreros, Rohmer (2016): Uncertainties in sandy shorelines evolution under the Bruun rule assumption. Frontiers of Marine Science, vol. 3, art. 49.

Robinet, Idier, Castelle, Marieu (2018): A reduced-complexity shoreline change model combining longshore and cross-shore processes: The LX-Shore model. Environmental Modelling and Software, ELSEVIER, vol. 109, pp. 1-16.

Saltelli, Ratto, Andres, Campolongo, Cariboni, Gatelli, Saisana, Tarantola (2008): Global Sensitivity Analysis: The premier. Jhon Wiley & sons.

Sobol (2001): Global sensitivity indices for nonlinear mathematical models and their Monte Carlo estimates. Math. Comput. Simul., Vol. 80, pp. 55-271.

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.