AbstractThe paper will describe the development and operation of a comprehensive tropical cyclone wind, wave and storm tide risk design and warning software toolbox that covers all of tropical-influenced Australia, The toolbox is designed to provide both rapid assessment and detailed design capabilities for coastal, port, offshore and nearshore design, including projected future climate change. It also provides real-time emergency management functionality. The toolbox provides a probabilistic design framework that facilitates the essential need for sensitivity analysis of both inputs and outputs without pre-conceived risk thresholds. It provides the essential hazard component in a robust and verified context that can then, depending on the application, enable more focused and efficient deterministic modelling stages using models of choice.
Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/pssgiYdkEbM
Hardy, McConochie, Mason (2001): A wave model for the Great Barrier Reef. Ocean Engin., 28 (1), 45-70.
Harper (2004): Queensland climate change and community vulnerability to tropical cyclones – ocean hazards assessment: synthesis report, Queensland Government, Aug, 38pp.
Harper et al. (2008) A review of historical tropical cyclone intensity in north-western Australia and implications for climate change trend analysis. Australian Met. Magazine, vol. 57, (2), pp. 121-141.
Harper (2010): Modelling the Tracy storm surge-implications for storm structure and intensity estimation, Australian Met. and Oceanographic Jnl, 60, pp 187-197.
Harper (2013): Best practice in tropical cyclone wind hazard modelling – in search of data and emptying the skeleton cupboard, Proc. 16th Aust. Wind Enging. Soc. Workshop (AWES), Brisbane.
Harper ,Mason (2016): A tropical cyclone wind event data set for Australia. Proc. 18th Aust. Wind Enging. Soc Workshop (AWES), McClaren Vale.
Knaff, Harper (2010): Tropical cyclone surface wind structure and wind-pressure relationships. Keynote KS1, WMO 7th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones IWTC-VII, Tropical Cyclone Prog., La Reunion, Nov 15- 20. (see also WMO TD No. 1561, March 2011, 79pp).
Kossin, Knapp, Vimont., Murnane, Harper (2007): A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34.
Velden C., B. Harper, et al. (2006): The Dvorak tropical cyclone intensity estimation technique: a satellite-based method that has endured for over 30 years. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, vol 87, pp 1195-1210.