UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE CHANGE PROJECTION TO TYPHOON PROPERTIES AND MAXIMUM STORM SURGE HEIGHT DEPENDING OF FUTURE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION SCENARIOS
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How to Cite

Yang, J.-A., Kim, S., Son, S., Mase, H., & Mori, N. (2020). UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE CHANGE PROJECTION TO TYPHOON PROPERTIES AND MAXIMUM STORM SURGE HEIGHT DEPENDING OF FUTURE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION SCENARIOS. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, (36v), waves.32. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.waves.32

Abstract

In order to evaluate the future storm surge risk at the national scale, it is necessary to evaluate typhoon characteristics for a country-specific in prior to conducting storm surge simulation using them. When projecting future changes of tropical cyclones (TC) by using the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), there are several uncertainties due to model resolution, model physics parameterization, given sea surface temperature (SST) under future climate condition, and global warming scenarios. The uncertainties stemming from physics and numerical modeling configuration can be reduced by improving the accuracy of AGCMs, while those from the global warming scenario and future SST condition are unable to be. This study assessed uncertainties in projecting future change to typhoon properties such as tracks, frequency and intensity and extreme storm surge height (SSH) depending of future SST and greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/Wzp35k4tyhM
https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.waves.32
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