LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF CASPIAN SEA LEVEL UNDER CMIP6 SCENARIOS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

S. Mahya Hoseini; Mohsen Soltanpour

doi:10.9753/icce.v36v.papers.5

No. 36v (2020), Full Length Papers

No. 36v (2020)

LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF CASPIAN SEA LEVEL UNDER CMIP6 SCENARIOS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Full Length Papers

https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.papers.5

Published 2020-12-31

S. Mahya Hoseini
Mohsen Soltanpour

S. Mahya Hoseini

Mohsen Soltanpour

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Hoseini, S. M., & Soltanpour, M. (2020). LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF CASPIAN SEA LEVEL UNDER CMIP6 SCENARIOS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, (36v), papers.5. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.papers.5

Abstract

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is employed to predict the long-term Caspian Sea level (CSL). 114-year observed CSL data (1900-2014) and the precipitation and temperature of historical and future scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used to predict the future fluctuations of CSL (2015-2050). The values of the statistical indices in training, validating and testing periods (1900-2014) indicate the efficiency of the ANN in reconstruction of the CSL. Considering the outputs of different climate change projections (CMIP6) and excluding the human interventions, the study predicts the CSL fluctuation range of -28 m to -26m until 2050.

Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/Kfj-gr65TR8

https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36v.papers.5

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LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF CASPIAN SEA LEVEL UNDER CMIP6 SCENARIOS USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

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