Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference


hurricane surge
surge forecasting
flooding damages

How to Cite

Irish, J. L., Ferreira, C., Olivera, F., Udoh, I., Song, Y. K., & Chang, K.-A. (2011). RAPID PROBABILISTIC HURRICANE SURGE AND DAMAGE FORECASTING USING SURGE RESPONSE FUNCTIONS. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(32), currents.20. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.currents.20


In this paper, a joint probability approach is used with scaling laws for hurricane surge to rapidly develop probabilistic based hurricane surge and damage forecasts. The method presented is demonstrated along the Texas, USA coastline for Hurricane Ike, which made landfall in September of 2008. The probabilistic approach presented here is both accurate and fast, with a single surge and percent damage forecast taking less than one minute while representing more than 170,000 distinct hurricane possibilities.


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