STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO FUTURE TYPHOON PROJECTION
Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference
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Keywords

stochastic typhoon model
Monte Carlo simulation
AGCM
frequency of landfall
central atmospheric pressure

How to Cite

Yasuda, T., Mase, H., Kunitomi, S., Mori, N., & Hayashi, Y. (2011). STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO FUTURE TYPHOON PROJECTION. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(32), management.16. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.management.16

Abstract

This study presents a stochastic typhoon model (STM) for estimating the characteristics of typhoons in the present and future climate conditions. Differences of statistical characteristics between present and future typhoons were estimated from projections by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under a climate change scenario and are taken into account in the stochastic modelling of future typhoons as a climate change signal. From the STM results which utilize the Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the frequency of typhoon landfall in Osaka bay area, Japan, will decrease, although the mean value of atmospheric central pressure of typhoon will not change significantly. The arrival probability of stronger typhoons will increase in the future climate scenario.
https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v32.management.16
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