ICCE 2012 Cover Image


shoreline change
multiple regression analysis
Akaike Information Criterion

How to Cite

Banno, M., & Kuriyama, Y. (2012). MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF EFFECTS OF BAR AND TIDE ON SHORELINE CHANGE. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(33), sediment.25.


The effects of bars and tides on shoreline change were investigated by a multiple regression analysis. The shoreline change rates used for the analysis were estimated from the beach profiles measured every workday during a 22-year period from 1986 to 2007 on the Hasaki coast in Japan. The examined parameters which had the potential to affect shoreline change rates were offshore wave energy fluxes, previous shoreline positions, maximum, minimum and average tides, and inner and outer bar crest elevations. In the multiple regression analysis, parameters which affected the shoreline change rate were selected by comparing the multiple regression models developed by combining the parameters on the basis of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value, and the effects were also estimated by using the coefficients of the best model which had the smallest AIC. The shoreline change was affected by not only the offshore wave energy fluxes and the previous shoreline positions but also the maximum and minimum tides and the inner and outer bar crest elevations. The largest effect was the offshore wave energy fluxes, followed in order by the maximum tides, the previous shoreline positions, the minimum tides, the outer bar crest elevations and the inner bar crest elevations.


Akaike, H. 1973. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle, 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory, 267âˆ'281.

Davidson, M.A., Lewis, R.P. and Turner, I.L. 2010. Forecasting seasonal to multi-year shoreline change. Coastal Engineering, 57, 620âˆ'629.

Duncan, U.S. 1964. The effect of water table and tide cycle on swash-backwash sediment distribution and beach profile development, Marine Geology, 2, 186âˆ'197.

Horst, P. 1941. The role of the predictor variables which are independent of the criterion, Social Science Research Council, 48, 431âˆ'436.

Katoh, K., S. Yanagishima. 1988. Predictive model for daily changes of shoreline, Proceedings of 21st International Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, 1253âˆ'1264.

Kuriyama, Y. 2002. Medium-term bar behavior and associated sediment transport at Hasaki, Japan, J. Geophysical Research, 107, 3132.

Miller, J.A. and R.G. Dean. 2009. A simple new shoreline change model, Coastal Engineering, 51, 531âˆ'556.

Sunamura, T. 1983. A predictive model for shoreline changes on natural beaches caused by 253 storm and post-storm waves, Trans. Japanese Geomor. Union, 4, 1âˆ'10.

Yates, M.L., R.T. Guza and W.C. O'Reilly. 2009. Equilibrium shoreline response: Observations and modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, 1âˆ'16.

Authors retain copyright and grant the Proceedings right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this Proceedings.