BASIC EXAMINATION OF FUTURE CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AND STORM SURGE PROPERTIES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE
ICCE 2012 Cover Image
PDF

Keywords

tropical cyclone
Monte-Calro simulation
cluster analysis
climate change

How to Cite

Nakajo, S., Mori, N., Yasuda, T., & Mase, H. (2012). BASIC EXAMINATION OF FUTURE CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE AND STORM SURGE PROPERTIES UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(33), management.23. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v33.management.23

Abstract

Recently high-resolution Global Climate Model (GCM) shows that global climate changes may cause the future change of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) characteristics, such as frequency, developing process and intensity. However, there are two difficulties for assessment of future TC disaster, one is uncertainty of future prediction in GCM, and another is shortage of sample TC data. In this paper, we estimated future changes of TC properties and reduced uncertainty by ensemble averaging of multi-GCM prediction results, and generated many synthetic TC data with Global Stochastic Tropical Cyclone Model (GSTCM). In addition, GSTCM which have empirical temporal correlation algorithm was improved for the reproducibility of arrival TC statistics by cluster analysis of TC data. This upgrade could pave the way to local future prediction of TC disaster.
https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v33.management.23
PDF

References

T. M. Hall and S. Jewson. Statistical modeling of north atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tellus, 59A: 486-498, 2007.

M. K. James and L. B. Mason. Synthetic tropical cyclone database. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, 131(4):181-192, 2005.http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(2005)131:4(181)">http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(2005)131:4(181)">http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(2005)131:4(181)>

T. R. Knutson, J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and M. Sugi. Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3(779):157-163, 2010.http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779">http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779">http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779>

H. Murakami, B. Wang, and A. Kitoh. Future change of western north pacific typhoons projections by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model. Journal of Climate, 24:1154-1169, 2011.http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3723.1">http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3723.1">http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3723.1>

S. Nakajo, N. Mori, T. Yasuda, and H. Mase. Prediction of future tropical cyclone characteristics using global stochastic tropical cyclone model. Proceedings of Asia Pacific Coasts 2011, (41):9pp., 2011.

H. A. Ramsay, S. J. Camargo, and D. Kim. Cluster analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the southern hemisphere. Climate dynamics, 39:897-917, 2012.http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1225-8">http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1225-8">http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1225-8>

P. J. Vickery, P. F. Skerlj, and L. A. Twisdale. Simulation of hurricane risk in the u.s. using empirical track model. Journal of Structural Engineering, 126(10):1222-1237, 2000.http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2000)126:10(1222)">http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2000)126:10(1222)">http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2000)126:10(1222)>

Authors retain copyright and grant the Proceedings right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this Proceedings.