Abstract
We developed a shoreline change model considering the effects of the wave regime, sea level, and time heterogeneity. The model predicts the shoreline change under changing global climate conditions: sea-level rise and wave climate change. The model predicted the future shoreline positions from 2008 to 2095 at the Hasaki coast on Japan's Pacific coast. The simulation results showed that the shoreline would retreat approximately 20 m by the end of this century owing to the rise in sea level; nevertheless, the wave climate change would not cause a worsening of the beach erosion, but would cause only a slight increase in the variation of the shoreline position.References
Banno, M. and Y. Kuriyama. 2012. Multiple regression analysis of effects of bar and tide on shoreline change, Proceedings of 33rd Conference on Coastal Engineering, ASCE, sediment.25.
Bruun, P. 1962. Sea level rise as a cause of shoreline erosion, American Society Civil Engineering Proceedings, Journal of the Waterways and Harbors Division, 88, WW1, 117-130.
Crawley, M.J. 2005. Statistics: An Introduction using R, Wiley, West Sussex, England, 342 pp.
Davidson, M.A., K.D. Splinter and I.L. Turner. 2013. A simple equilibrium model for predicting shoreline change, Coastal Engineering, 73, 191-202.
Dean, R.G. 1991. Equilibrium beach profiles: characteristics and applications, Journal of Coastal Research, 7, 1, 53-84.
IPCC AR4. 2007. IPCC fourth assessment report, http://www.ipcc.ch/
IPCC AR5. 2013. IPCC fifth assessment report, http://www.ipcc.ch/
Kuriyama, Y. 2002. Medium-term bar behavior and associated sediment transport at Hasaki, Japan, Journal of Geophysical Research, 107, 3132.
Miller, J.K. and R.G. Dean. 2004. A simple new shoreline change model, Coastal Engineering, 51, 531-556.
Mori, N., T. Yasuda, H. Mase, T. Tracey, Y. Oku. 2010. Projection of Extreme Wave Climate Change under Global Warming, Hydrological Research Letters, 4, 15-19.
Rahmstorf, S., G. Foster and A. Cazenave. 2012. Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011, Environmental Research Letter, 7, 044035, 1-5.
Yates, M.L., R.T. Guza and W.C. O'Reilly. 2009. Equilibrium shoreline response: observations and modeling, Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, C09014.