A DESIGN LIFE BASED APPROACH TO MULTI-HAZARD RISK ANALYSIS
AbstractSmall craft harbors are important facets to many coastal communities providing a transition from land to ocean. Because of the damage resulting from the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japanese tele-tsunamis, the tsunami risk to the small craft harbors in California has become an important concern. However, tsunamis represent only one of many hazards a harbor is likely to see in California. Other natural hazards including wave attack, wind events, storm surge and sea level rise all can damage a harbor but are not typically addressed collectively in traditional risk studies. Existing approaches to assess small craft harbor vulnerably typically look at single events assigning likely damage levels to each event. However, a harbor will likely experience damage from several different types of hazards over its service life with each event contributing proportionally to the total damage state. The approach presented here will consider the how the damage from many different natural phenomena is likely to be distributed during a harbors service life and how the cumulative effect of the events could contribute to failure potential of components within the harbor.
Keen, A., Lynett, P., Eskijan, M., Ayca, A., and Wilson, R. (2017) "A Monte Carlo Based Approach to Estimate Fragility Curves of Floating Docks for Small Craft Marinas." Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering (ASCE), doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000385.