AbstractRising seas increase the exposure, vulnerability, and thus the risk associated with storm surge flowing across the coastal floodplain (Passeri et al. 2015). This is especially true across low-gradient coastal landscapes such as Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The extent and depth of flooding will be exasperated over the long term by morphologic changes to the shoreline, dunes and barrier islands (Plant et al. 2016, Passeri et al. 2016), marsh evolution (Alizad et al. 2016, Kidwell et al. 2017, Morris et al. 2016), and land use and land cover changes (Bilskie et al. 2014 & 2016). This presentation will describe how to incorporate biogeophysical impacts of climate change into future tide and surge models. A methodology will be presented (Bilskie et al. 2018) to down select a suite of synthetic storms from recent flood insurance studies to force hurricane storm surge models that represent present day and future changes to the coastal landscape under four sea level rise (SLR) scenarios of low (0.2 m), intermediate-low (0.5 m), intermediate-high (1.2 m), and high (2.0 m). Results of peak storm surge are used to compute the 100-year and 500-year return period floodplain and stillwater surge heights for each SLR scenario.
Alizad, Hagen, Morris, Medeiros, Bilskie, Weishampel (2016): Coastal wetland response to sea level rise in a fluvial estuarine system, Earth's Future, Vol. 4(11), pp. 483-497.
Bilskie, Hagen, Medeiros, Passeri (2014): Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, pp. 1-8.
Bilskie, Hagen, Alizad, Medeiros, Passeri, Needham (2016): Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico, Earth's Future, Vol. 4(5), pp. 177-193.
Bilskie, Hagen, Irish (2018): Development of Return Period Stillwater Floodplains for the Northern Gulf of Mexico under the Coastal Dynamics of Sea Level Rise, ASCE Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, In press.
DeLorme, Kidwell, Hagen, Stephens (2016): Developing and Managing Transdisciplinary and Transformative Research on the Coastal Dynamics of Sea Level Rise: Experiences and Lessons Learned, Earth's Future, Vol. 4(5), pp. 194-209.
Kidwell, Dietrich, Hagen, Medeiros (2017): An Earth's Future Special Collection: Impacts of the coastal dynamics of sea level rise on low gradient coastal landscapes, Earth's Future, Vol. 5(1), pp. 2-9.
Morris, Barber, Callaway, Chambers, Hagen, Johnson, Megonigal, Neubauer, Troxler, Wigand (2016): Contributions of organic and inorganic matter to sediment volume and accretion in tidal wetlands at steady state, Earth's Future, Vol. 4(4), pp. 110-121.
Passeri, Hagen, Medeiros, Bilskie, Alizad, Wang (2015): The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes: a review, Earth's Future, 3, 159-181.
Passeri, Hagen, Plant, Bilskie, Medeiros (2016): Tidal Hydrodynamics under Future Sea Level Rise and Coastal Morphology in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Earth's Future, Vol. 4(5), pp. 159-176.
Plant, Thieler, Passeri (2016): Coupling centennial†scale shoreline change to sea†level rise and coastal morphology in the Gulf of Mexico using a Bayesian network, Earth's Future, Vol. 4(5), pp. 143-158.