PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF PORT OPERABILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

  • Paula Camus
  • Antonio Tomás
  • Cristina Izaguirre
  • Beatriz Rodriguez
  • Gabriel Díaz-Hernández
  • Iñigo Losada

Abstract

Harbors are strategic infrastructures within the local, regional and global economy. The objective of a harbor is to guarantee the safety, serviceability and exploitation of all activities, for each element, and in all project phases. Within this context, Level III Verification Method is recommended for the probabilistic evaluation of failure modes and operational stoppage modes (downtime) of maritime structures; and the Spanish Recommendations for Maritime Structures (ROM) proposes a simulation method based on the Monte Carlo technique. On the other hand, ports are susceptible to impacts from climate change driven processes, like sea level rise (SLR) or changes in waves and storm surges. These impacts could reduce the functionality of ports and therefore negatively affect the effectiveness of supply chain network. In this work, we focus on a very long-term probabilistic assessment of the port operability due to wave agitation inside the port including the potential effects of climate change.

References

Camus, P., Mendez, F.J., Medina, R. (2011). A hybrid efficient method to downscale wave climate to coastal areas. Coastal Engineering, 58(9): 851-862.

Rueda, A., Camus, P., Tomás, A., Vitousek, S., Méndez, F.J. (2016). A multivariate extreme wave and storm surge climate emulator based on weather patterns. Ocean Modelling, 104, 242-251.

Solari, S., Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (2011). On the use of vector autoregressive (VAR) and Regime Switching VAR models for the simulation of sea and wind state parameters. Marine Technology and Engineering, 1, 217- 230.

Published
2018-12-30
How to Cite
Camus, P., Tomás, A., Izaguirre, C., Rodriguez, B., Díaz-HernándezG., & Losada, I. (2018). PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF PORT OPERABILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(36), risk.54. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.risk.54