PROJECTION OF FUTURE STORM SURGES AROUND THE KOREAN PENINSULA BASED ON LARGE ENSEMBLE CLIMATE EXPERIMENTS
AbstractProjection of future storm surge height (SSH) based on results of ensemble climate experiments performed using a general climate model (hereafter, GCM) under future climate conditions is ready to start at the regional scale for disaster prevention against storm surge. However, there are limitation to estimate future SSHs with particular return periods which required in coastal structure design because of the lack of sample numbers of storm surge events on local scale. To obtain a large number of samples in localized catastrophic events, Mizuta et al. (2016) carried out an unprecedentedly large ensemble of climate simulations using a high-resolution global climate model over 5000 years. In this study, spatial pattern of storm surge values around the Korean Peninsula (hereafter, the KP) with 100-years return period are assessed based on the large ensemble experiments.
Mizuta et al. (2016): Over 5000 years of ensemble future climate simulations by 60 km global and 20 km regional atmospheric models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, in press.
Yasuda, Nakajo, Kim, Mase, Mori and Horsburgh (2014): Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection. Coastal Engineering, 83, pp. 65-71.