MODELLING PARAMETERS AND IMPACTS OF FOUR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
AbstractCoastal zone is among the most vulnerable areas of the Earth to global warming, firstly, due to anticipated mean sea level rise, and secondly, regarding changes in storm activity. In Europe, much of the high-impact weather events are associated with extratropical cyclones (ETC). It is highly possible that tropical cyclones will get stronger under future climate conditions, however projections for ETC-s are still far more mixed. The study at hand is an improved extension to that of Mäll et al. (2017) where the authors aimed to study how an individual extreme storm (2005 Gudrun) would change under future climate conditions. The main aim is to learn whether the similar results are found for four different (tracks, thermal conditions) ETC-s under improved methodology and homogenous initial and boundary conditions in order to decrease uncertainty and draw stronger climatological generalizations. The study area is the Baltic Sea region and more specifically Estonia.
Mäll, Suursaar, Nakamura, Shibayama (2017): Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun, Natural Hazards, SPRINGER, (-), pp. 1-26.
Zappa, Shaffrey, Hodges, Sansom, Stephenson (2013): A multi-model assessment of future projections of north atlantic and european extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Climate, AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, (26), pp. 5846-5862.