ICCE 2018 Cover Image

Supplementary Files

Conference Presentation File

How to Cite

Lira-Loarca, A., Cobos, M., Baquerizo, A., & Losada, M. A. (2018). A MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL MODEL TO SIMULATE STORM EVOLUTION. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1(36), waves.84. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v36.waves.84


The design and management of a coastal structure must take into account not only the different levels of damage along its useful life but also the construction, reparation and dismantling costs. Therefore, it should be addressed as an optimization problem that depends on random multivariate climate variables. In this context it is essential to develop tools that allow the simulation of storms taking into account all the main maritime variables and their evolution (Borgman, 1969). In general, most studies focusing on storm characterization and evolution use geometric shapes like the equivalent triangular storm (Bocotti, 2000; ROM-1.0; 2009) to characterize individual storms. Actual storms have, however, irregular and random histories. In this work, we present a simple and efficient methodology to simulate time-series of storm events including several maritime variables. This methodology includes the use of non-stationary parametric distributions (Solari, 2011) to characterize each variable, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to describe the temporal dependence between variables, and a copula model to link the seasonal dependency of the storm duration and the interarrival time between consecutive storms.


Boccotti (2000). Wave Mechanics for Ocean Engineering. Elsevier Scienc, Oxford.

Borgman (1969). Ocean wave simulation for engineering design. Proc. ASCE Journal of Waterways and Harbours Division, 95, 557-83

ROM-1.0 (2009) Recommendations for the project design and construction of breakwaters. Puertos del Estado.

Solari, Losada (2011). Non-stationary wave height climate modeling and simulation. JGR, 116, 1-18.

Authors retain copyright and grant the Proceedings right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this Proceedings.