LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF EXTREME STORM SURGE IN JAPAN USING MAXIMUM POTENTIAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT MODEL BASED ON HIGHRESMIP EXPERIMENT

Shun Ito; Nobuhito Mori; Tomoya Shimura; Takuya Miyashita

doi:10.9753/icce.v37.management.44

No. 37 (2022), Coastal Management, Environment, and Risk

No. 37 (2022)

LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF EXTREME STORM SURGE IN JAPAN USING MAXIMUM POTENTIAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT MODEL BASED ON HIGHRESMIP EXPERIMENT

Coastal Management, Environment, and Risk

Published 2023-09-01

Shun Ito
Nobuhito Mori
Tomoya Shimura
Takuya Miyashita

Shun Ito

Nobuhito Mori

Tomoya Shimura

Takuya Miyashita

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How to Cite

LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF EXTREME STORM SURGE IN JAPAN USING MAXIMUM POTENTIAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT MODEL BASED ON HIGHRESMIP EXPERIMENT. (2023). Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 37, management.44. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v37.management.44

Abstract

The recent IPCC report indicated that the ratio of strong tropical cyclones (TCs) can increase due to climate change, and there is concern that the intensified TCs would increase the risk of storm surges. However, a storm surge is an extreme event with a lower frequency compared to strong winds and heavy precipitation. Thus, it is difficult to estimate storm surge risk under climate change considering future changes in intensity, path, and speed of TCs. This study estimates future changes in the worst class of TCs using the MPI (Maximum Potential Intensity) theory and future changes in the worst class of storm surge height along major bays in Japan using the MPS (Maximum Potential Storm surge height) model.

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References

Bister M., and K. Emanuel (2002): Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability. JGR-A , ACL-26.

N. Mori, et al. (2021): Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone. Climatic Change, 164(3), 1-18.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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LONG-TERM PROJECTION OF EXTREME STORM SURGE IN JAPAN USING MAXIMUM POTENTIAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT MODEL BASED ON HIGHRESMIP EXPERIMENT

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