Resumen
The recent IPCC report indicated that the ratio of strong tropical cyclones (TCs) can increase due to climate change, and there is concern that the intensified TCs would increase the risk of storm surges. However, a storm surge is an extreme event with a lower frequency compared to strong winds and heavy precipitation. Thus, it is difficult to estimate storm surge risk under climate change considering future changes in intensity, path, and speed of TCs. This study estimates future changes in the worst class of TCs using the MPI (Maximum Potential Intensity) theory and future changes in the worst class of storm surge height along major bays in Japan using the MPS (Maximum Potential Storm surge height) model.Referencias
Bister M., and K. Emanuel (2002): Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability. JGR-A , ACL-26.
N. Mori, et al. (2021): Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone. Climatic Change, 164(3), 1-18.
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución 4.0.
Derechos de autor 2023 Shun Ito, Nobuhito Mori, Tomoya Shimura, Takuya Miyashita