AbstractDue to climate change impacts on atmospheric circulation, global and regional wave climate in many coastal regions around the world might change. Any changes in wave parameters could result in significant changes in wave energy flux, the patterns of coastal sediment transport, and coastal evolution. Although some studies have tried to address the potential impacts of climate change on longshore sediment transport (LST) patterns, they did not sufficiently consider the uncertainties arising from different sources in the projections. In this study, the uncertainty associated with the choice of model used for the estimation of LST is examined. The models were applied to a short stretch of coastline located in Northern Gold Coast, Australia, where a huge volume of sediment is transported along the coast annually. The ensemble of results shows that the future mean annual and monthly LST rate might decrease by about 11 percent, compared to the baseline period. The results also show that uncertainty associated with LST estimation is significant. Hence, it is proposed that this uncertainty, in addition to that from other sources, should be considered to quantify the contribution of each source in total uncertainty. In this way, a probabilistic-based framework can be developed to provide more meaningful output applicable to long-term coastal planning
Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/3CGU9RcGYjE
Almar, R., Kestenare, E., Reyns, J., Jouanno, J., Anthony, E.J., Laibi, R., Hemer, M., Du Penhoat, Y., Ranasinghe, R., 2015. Response of the Bight of Benin (Gulf of Guinea, West Africa) coastline to anthropogenic and natural forcing, Part1: Wave climate variability and impacts on the longshore sediment transport. Cont. Shelf Res. 110, 48–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2015.09.020
Antolínez, J.A.A., Méndez, F.J., Camus, P., Vitousek, S., González, E.M., Ruggiero, P., Barnard, P., 2016. A multiscale climate emulator for long‐term morphodynamics (MUSCLE‐morpho). J. Geophys. Res. Ocean. 121, 775–791. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011107
Antolínez, J.A.A., Murray, A.B., Méndez, F.J., Moore, L.J., Farley, G., Wood, J., 2018. Downscaling Changing Coastlines in a Changing Climate: The Hybrid Approach. J. Geophys. Res. Earth Surf. 123, 229–251. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JF004367
Battjes, J.A., Stive, M.J.F., 1985. Calibration and verification of a dissipation model for random breaking waves. J. Geophys. Res. Ocean. 90, 9159–9167.
Chowdhury, P., Behera, M.R., Reeve, D.E., 2020. Future wave-climate driven longshore sediment transport along the Indian coast. Clim. Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02693-7
Cooper, J.A.G., Pilkey, O.H., 2007. Field measurement and quantification of longshore sediment transport: an unattainable goal? Geol. Soc. London, Spec. Publ. 274, 37–43. https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.SP.2007.274.01.05
Dastgheib, A., Reyns, J., Thammasittirong, S., Weesakul, S., Thatcher, M., Ranasinghe, R., 2016. Variations in the wave climate and sediment transport due to climate change along the coast of Vietnam. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 4. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse4040086
DHI, 2017. Littoral Processes Module, user guide 1–115.
DHL, 1992. Southern Gold Coast Littoral Sand Supply. Technical Report H85, Delft Hydraulics Laboratory.
Doering, J.C., Bowen, A.J., 1995. Parametrization of orbital velocity asymmetries of shoaling and breaking waves using bispectral analysis. Coast. Eng. 26, 15–33. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-3839(95)00007-X
Gerhard Masselink, M.G.H., 2003. Introduction to Coastal Processes and Geomorphology, 1st Editio. ed. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203783740
Hanson, H., Kraus, N.C., 1989. GENESIS: Generalized Model for Simulating Shoreline Change. Report 1. Technical Reference.
Hemer, M., Trenham, C., Durrant, T., Greenslade, D., 2015. CAWCR Global wind-wave 21st century climate projections. v2. CSIRO. Service Collection. https://doi.org/10.4225/08/55C991CC3F0E8
Hemer, M.A., Trenham, C.E., 2016. Evaluation of a CMIP5 derived dynamical global wind wave climate model ensemble. Ocean Model. 103, 190–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.10.009
Kamphuis, J.W., 2010. Introduction to Coastal Engineering and Management, Advanced Series on Ocean Engineering. WORLD SCIENTIFIC. https://doi.org/10.1142/7021
Kamphuis, J.W., 1991. Alongshore sediment transport rate. J. Waterw. Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng. 117, 624–640. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-950X(1991)117:6(624)
Karsten Mangor, Nils K. Drønen, K.H.K. and S.E.K., 2017. Shoreline Management Guidlines - DHI. DHI.
Larson, M., Hoan, L.X., Hanson, H., 2010. Direct formula to compute wave height and angle at incipient breaking. J. Waterw. Port, Coast. Ocean Eng. 136, 119–122. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000030
Mil-Homens, J., Ranasinghe, R., van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M., Stive, M.J.F., 2013. Re-evaluation and improvement of three commonly used bulk longshore sediment transport formulas. Coast. Eng. 75, 29–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.01.004
Patterson, D.C., 2007. Sand Transport and Shoreline Evolution , Northern Gold Coast , Australia. Analysis 2007, 147–151.
Ranasinghe, R., 2016. Assessing climate change impacts on open sandy coasts: A review. Earth-Science Rev. 160, 320–332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.07.011
Ruggiero, P., Buijsman, M., Kaminsky, G.M., Gelfenbaum, G., 2010. Modeling the effects of wave climate and sediment supply variability on large-scale shoreline change. Mar. Geol. 273, 127–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2010.02.008
Shaeri, S., Etemad-Shahidi, A., Tomlinson, R., 2020. Revisiting Longshore Sediment Transport Formulas. J. Waterw. Port, Coastal, Ocean Eng. 146, 04020009. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WW.1943-5460.0000557
Splinter, K.D., Davidson, M.A., Golshani, A., Tomlinson, R., 2012. Climate controls on longshore sediment transport. Cont. Shelf Res. 48, 146–156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2012.07.018
Toimil, A., Camus, P., Losada, I.J., Le Cozannet, G., Nicholls, R.J., Idier, D., Maspataud, A., 2020. Climate change-driven coastal erosion modelling in temperate sandy beaches: Methods and uncertainty treatment. Earth-Science Rev. 202, 103110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103110
Tonnon, P.K., Huisman, B.J.A., Stam, G.N., van Rijn, L.C., 2018. Numerical modelling of erosion rates, life span and maintenance volumes of mega nourishments. Coast. Eng. 131, 51–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.10.001
USACE, 1984, 1984. Shore protection manual /[prepared for Department of the Army, US Army Corps of Engineers]. Vicksburg, Miss. :Dept. of the Army, Waterways Experiment Station, Corps of Engineers, Coastal Engineering Research Center. https://doi.org/10.5962/bhl.title.47829
van Rijn, L.C., 2014. A simple general expression for longshore transport of sand, gravel and shingle. Coast. Eng. 90, 23–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.04.008
Van Rijn, L.C., 1998. Principles of coastal morphology.