GREENSURGE: AN EFFICIENT ADDITIVE MODEL TO ASSESS STORM SURGE INDUCED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES

Abstract

Storm surge is one of the main components of coastal flooding induced by tropical cyclones (TCs), a big concern for Pacific Island Countries (PICs). It is well-known that storm surge levels can be accurately estimated using numerical models capable of considering both the inverse barometer effect and wind set-up. Therefore, dynamic simulations of a shallow water (SW) numerical model can be forced with the corresponding dynamic pressure and wind fields to accurately assess the storm surge induced by any TC at any spatial scale. However, this kind of dynamic simulations are a very computationally expensive task to be implemented in an operational inundation forecasting system, particularly for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) where computational resources are often limited. For this reason, in order to rapidly assess storm surge levels under the threat of occurrence of any TC, an additive model based on a library of pre-run cases has been developed.