PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING SYSTEM OF STORM SURGE USING A STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL
ICCE 2022
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How to Cite

Tajima, Y., & Higaki, Y. (2023). PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING SYSTEM OF STORM SURGE USING A STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, (37), management.154. https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v37.management.154

Abstract

This paper presents a newly developed real time probabilistic forecasting system of storm surge at an arbitrary target location when a typhoon is formed and approaches to the location. Such probabilistic information may be essential for business or public entities along the coast who need to make appropriate decision to what extent they should break their daily operations and prepare for the upcoming coastal hazard. Developed system, based on Monte Carlo simulation, consists of two parts: (i) generation of a number of virtual typhoons; and (ii) storm surge prediction for each typhoon.
https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v37.management.154
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References

Higaki, Y. & Y. Tajima (2020): Study on the applicability of a stochastic typhoon model for probabilistic forecasting of storm surge induced by a typhoon, Coast. Eng. J., doi:10.1080/21664250.2020.1828015

Igarashi, Y. & Y. Tajima (2021): Application of recurrent neural network for prediction of the time-varying storm surge, Coast. Eng. J., doi:10.1080/21664250.2020. 1868736

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Copyright (c) 2023 Yoshimitsu Tajima, Yukimasa Higaki