ICCE 2022

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PROBABILISTIC APPROACH FOR PREDICTING THE DRIFT OF BODIES BY TSUNAMIS. (2023). Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 37, management.164.


The Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 triggered a massive tsunami, and most of the dead and missing were killed by the tsunami. About 12 years after the disaster, search activities for missing persons are still ongoing. So far, the drift behavior of drifting debris (Nistor et al., 2017) has been studied. However, the human body's drift behavior and area due to tsunamis have not been studied. It is important to establish a prediction method for the drift behavior of the human body in order to quickly rescue people who are drowned by tsunamis. On the other hand, according to Mateus et al.(2020), probabilistic and statistical approaches are important. Therefore, in this study, it is clarified that the drifting behavior of the human body based on the results of the interview survey in Otsuchi Town, Iwate Prefecture, and performs reproduction calculations to verify the validity of the method and to examine the influence of the initial configuration of the drifting position of the human body.


Nistor, Goseberg, Mikami, Shibayama, Stolle, Nakamura, and Matsuba (2017): Experimental investigations of debris dynamics over a horizontal plane, Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering, vol. 143 (3), pp. 04016022.

Mateus M, Canelas R, Pinto L and Vaz N (2020) When Tragedy Strikes: Potential Contributions From Ocean Observation to Search and Rescue Operations After Drowning Accidents. Front. Mar. Sci. 7:55.

Tomita, Kakinuma (2009): Numerical modeling to estimate tsunami damage, The Japanese Society for Multiphase Flow, pp. 382-389.

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